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KKN Gurugram Desk | Following the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22, 2025, India has taken several steps against Pakistan, the most significant being the decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty (IWT).This move has triggered a severe backlash from Pakistan, with several leaders issuing harsh warnings, even threatening nuclear retaliation. Background: The Indus Water Treaty Explained Signed in 1960 with the mediation of the World Bank, the Indus Water Treaty was designed to manage the sharing of river waters between India and Pakistan.Under the agreement: Eastern rivers (Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej) were allocated to India. Western rivers (Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum) were given to Pakistan. This treaty has been considered a model of peaceful cooperation between two otherwise hostile nations, surviving multiple wars and conflicts over decades. Pakistan’s Outrage: Nuclear Threats and Aggressive Statements India’s decision to suspend the treaty has created widespread anger in Pakistan.Pakistani Minister Hanif Abbasi issued a stark warning, suggesting that any attempt to block water would be interpreted as a declaration of war, potentially leading to nuclear conflict. Meanwhile, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) further escalated tensions by declaring,"Either water will flow into Sindh, or the blood of Indians will." Such extreme statements highlight the deep anxiety within Pakistan over India's latest strategic move. Why is Pakistan So Nervous About the Indus Treaty Suspension? Pakistan’s aggressive reaction stems mainly from two major reasons: 1. Economic Dependence on Indus Waters Pakistan's economy, much like India’s, is heavily dependent on agriculture.Key facts: Agriculture contributes nearly 20% to Pakistan’s GDP. Around 40% of Pakistan's workforce is engaged in farming activities. Crops like wheat, rice, and cotton require extensive irrigation. An estimated 80% of the water used for irrigation in Pakistan comes from rivers managed under the Indus Water Treaty. If India restricts the flow of water, it would severely impact Pakistan’s farming sector, leading to a major food crisis across the country. Moreover, crucial hydroelectric projects such as the Tarbela and Mangla dams rely heavily on the flow of the Indus River.Reduced water availability would not only cause agricultural collapse but also intensify Pakistan’s ongoing energy crisis, as electricity production would falter. Pakistan, already grappling with economic turmoil, could find itself on the verge of complete economic collapse if water restrictions persist. 2. Psychological Impact on Pakistan Apart from the tangible economic threats, there is a massive psychological impact on Pakistan’s strategic mindset. According to reports, Pakistani authorities are aware that the treaty has not been completely terminated. However, the suspension means India is no longer obligated to notify Pakistan about water release or blockage decisions. This uncertainty creates a constant fear in Pakistan: Excessive water release could cause flooding. Water retention could trigger droughts and crop failures. The unpredictability of India’s actions keeps Pakistan on edge, adding to its strategic insecurity. The Broader Context: India’s Strategic Shift Post Pahalgam Attack The Pahalgam terror attack, in which several Indian security personnel and civilians lost their lives, has changed India's posture towards Pakistan.The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty is a clear message: No more business as usual. Terror and dialogue cannot go hand in hand. India’s government seems determined to leverage every diplomatic and economic pressure point to respond to Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. Impact on India-Pakistan Relations The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty could have far-reaching consequences: Increased hostility on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC). Rise in cross-border skirmishes, which have already been reported post-Pahalgam attack. Diplomatic breakdowns at international forums like the United Nations. The global community, particularly the World Bank (a guarantor of the treaty), is closely monitoring the situation. Experts Weigh In: Is Water Really a Weapon? Strategic experts suggest that water can be used as an effective tool of pressure without actual military confrontation.By controlling the flow of water, India can: Hurt Pakistan’s food and energy security. Avoid direct conflict but still impose heavy economic costs. Force Pakistan to reconsider its policy of supporting terrorism. However, analysts also caution that using water as a weapon could lead to international criticism and environmental complications. Historical Perspective: Water as a Weapon of War Throughout history, controlling water resources has been a tactic in geopolitical conflicts: Israel and its neighbors over the Jordan River. Turkey and Syria over the Euphrates. Egypt and Ethiopia over the Nile. India’s move fits into a long historical pattern where upstream countries use their geographical advantage over downstream rivals. Possible Future Scenarios Scenario Impact on Pakistan Impact on India Complete Suspension Severe food and energy crisis Diplomatic strain, global criticism Selective Water Control Managed economic pressure Strategic advantage without war Treaty Renegotiation New terms favoring India Strengthened geopolitical stance India's suspension of the Indus Water Treaty marks a turning point in South Asia's geopolitics.By shifting from a purely military or diplomatic response to an economic and environmental strategy, India has introduced a new dimension to the conflict with Pakistan. Pakistan's panicked reaction, including nuclear threats, underscores its vulnerability.As tensions rise, the world watches anxiously — will water become the next front of conflict between these two nuclear-armed neighbors, or can a new diplomatic framework prevent disaster?

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